ExtendSim Research Grants Fulfilled

The ExtendSim Research Grant program subsidizes a portion of a student's PostDoc, PhD, or Masters research by donating a full version of ExtendSim for use by the student during the term of the project. Here are some of the research projects awarded an ExtendSim Research Grant that have already been completed. To learn about current projects in the ExtendSim Research Grant program, please see Research Grants in Progress

NewBiofuel Supply Chain

University of Texas"Simulation-Based Approach for the Optimization of a Biofuel Supply Chain"
Hernan Chavez Paura Garcia
University of Texas at San Antonio
PhD in Supply Chain Optimization • February 23, 2017

Project presented at

IISEThe 2017 IISE Annual Conference.


The billion-ton study lead by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory indicates that the U.S. can sustainably produce over a billion ton of biomass, annually. However, the delivery of the biomass required to meet the required goals is particularly challenging. This is mainly because of the physical properties of biomass. This research work focuses on the use of agricultural residues to produce second-generation biofuels. Second generation biomass exhibits more quality variability (e.g., higher ash and moisture contents) than first generation. The purpose of this study is to quantify the cost of imperfect feedstock quality in a biomass-to-biorefinery supply chain (SC) and to develop a discrete event simulation coupled with an optimization algorithm for designing a biofuel SC's. This work presents a novel optimization approach based on an extended Integrated Biomass Supply and Logistics (IBSAL) simulation model for estimating the collection, storage, and transportation costs. The presented extension of the IBSAL considers the cost incurred for having imperfect feedstock quality and finds the optimal SC design. The applicability of this methodology is illustrated by using a case study in Ontario, Canada. A converging set of non-dominated solutions is obtained from computational experiments. Sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the impact of different scenarios on overall costs. Preliminary results are presented.

IBSAL-SimMOpt Approach

The approach presented in this work is a two-phase model that uses an extension of the IBSAL model in the initial phase, and searches a near-optimal set of solutions in the second phase by using an optimization procedure based on the SimMOpt model. The IBSAL model is a time-dependent discrete event simulation (DES) model with activity-based costing. The model in the proposed approach estimates the cost of imperfect feedstock quality and evaluates its effect on the performance of the SC.

The SimMOpt model is a simulation-based multi-objective optimization approach based on stochastic Simulated Annealing (SA). 

Chavez model

The solutions for near-optimal quality-related costs are found by using the extension of the IBSAL implemented in ExtendSim and the SimMOpt-based procedure included in written in MS VBA®™ language. This figure is a diagram of the proposed approach.

Case Study

The characteristics of the system described in this research include a geographical implementation (i.e., Southern and Western Ontario, Canada), crop availability (ac), corn yield (bu/ac), sustainable production (dry tonne/ac), among others. The geographical implementation corresponds to 20 farms located in the following counties: Lambton, Chatam-Kent, Middlesex, and Huron.

The initial moisture content is modeled by ~U(0.6, 0.8). The moisture content after the natural drying process is assumed to follow ~U(0.15, 0.3). The moisture content requirement for thermochemical processes is 20%. If the content remains above 20%, the stover goes through a mechanical drying process. The cost of the natural air drying system is given by (0.014 * (Initial Moisture Content – Final Moisture Content) * 100) + 0.05 per bushel and the in-bin, stirred system is given by (0.033 * (Initial Moisture Content) * 100) + 0.048 per bushel. Similarly, the initial ash content follows ~U(0.08,0.12). The ash content after the screening process is assumed to follow ~U(0.1, Initial Ash Content). The screening cost is given by 135(Initial Ash Content – Final Ash Content) per dry tonne. The cost of disposing ash is given by 28.86(Final Ash Content) per dry tonne. The binary decision variables in this model represent the decisions of performing the field drying and the screening activities at each farm.

Results and Conclusions

The SA was tuned through designed computational experiments. The SA schedules have a relevant effect on the set of these preliminary solutions. Figure 3 shows the Pareto front including four schedules. The non-dominated solution that balances out the conformance and nonconformance costs (i.e., (0.4/0.6) and (0.6/0.4) weights) shows a conformance cost (the cost incurred to prevent biomass poor quality) of $49,899.47 and a non-conformance cost (cost incurred to fixed biomass poor quality) of $16,496.83 for all 20 farms. This non-dominated solution was found when using the schedule that computes the largest number of initial solutions (i.e., Schedule 4 → 50 initial solutions). This preliminary results highlighted the trade-off between conformance and conformance activities implemented into a biofuel SC. The impact of quality-related activities in the SC topology, design and planning decisions will be studied next.


This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office (4000142556) and U.S. Department of Agriculture/National Institute of Food and Agriculture (2015-38422-24064). The fellowship from the Mexican Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT) is gratefully acknowledged. The support provided by Imagine That!®™ by donating of a full version of ExtendSim®™ through the ExtendSim Research Grant is gratefully acknowledged. The research work on the IBSAL model by Sokhansanj, Turhollow, Ebadian and Webb was relevant for the development of the proposed approach.

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Previous Publications and Refereed Conference Proceedings

Aboytes, M., Chavez, H., Krishnaiyer, K., Stankus, S. & Taherkhorsandi, M. "Improving Radio Frequency Identification Accuracy in a Warehouse Setting". Abstract accepted in the 2016 Engineering Lean & Six Sigma Conference, San Antonio, TX, September 14 - 16, 2016.


Chávez, H. & Castillo-Villar, K. K. "Stochastic Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing for the Optimization of Machining Parameters". Abstract accepted in the 2016 Industrial and Systems Engineering Research Conference (ISERC), Anaheim, California, May 21 - 24, 2016.

2016 ISERC Best Track Paper: Manufacturing and Engineering Design.


Chávez, H., Castillo-Villar, K. K., Herrera, L., & Bustos, A. "Simulation-based multi-objective model for supply chains with disruptions in transportation". Robotics and Computer-Integrated Manufacturing.. Ms. Ref. No.: RCIM-D15-00130. 2016.


Stankus, S., Chávez, H., Castillo-Villar, K. K., & Feng, Y. "A Simulation-based Optimization Approach to Modeling a Fast-track Emergency Department". Abstract accepted in the 2015 Industrial and Systems Engineering Research Conference (ISERC), Nashville, Tennessee, May 30 - June 2, 2015.


Chavez, H. & Castillo-Villar K.K. "A Preliminary Simulated Annealing for Resilience Supply Chains". Paper on proceedings of the IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence 2014, Orlando, Florida, USA, December 12, 2014.


Chavez, Hernan, Castillo-Villar, K. K., Herrera, Luis & Bustos, A. "Simulation-based Optimization Model for Supply Chains with Disruptions in Transportation". Paper submitted on the Flexible Automation and Intelligent Manufacturing (FAIM) Conference 2014, San Antonio, TX, May 20-23. 2014.

Scientific Posters

Chavez, H., Webb, E., Castillo-Villar, K.K., Ebadian, M., & Sokhansanj, S. "Modeling Cost of Quality in a Discrete Event Biomass Supply Chain". IBSS (Southern Partnership for Integrated Biomass Supply Systems) Annual Meeting. July 27th, 2016.


Chavez, H., Webb, E., Castillo-Villar, K.K., Ebadian, M., & Sokhansanj, S. "Modeling Cost of Quality in a Discrete Event Biomass Supply Chain". ORISE (Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education) Summer Graduate, Post Graduate, Employee Participant, and Faculty Poster Session. August 9th, 2016.

Technical Reports

Castillo-Villar, K. K., Rogers, Dwain & Chavez, Hernan. "AFV's Fleet Replacement Optimization (Alternative Transportation Initiatives)". (City Public Services (CPS) Energy (San Antonio Water System (SAWS)) & Austin Public Transit (Capital Metro):). Summer 2015. Granting Agency: CPS through Texas Sustainable Energy Research Institute. 2015.


Castillo-Villar, K.K., & Chávez, H. "Simulation-based Optimization Model for Supply Chains with Disruptions in Transportation", Mexico Center Educational Research Fellowship - International Study Fund, 2013-2014, Funded by Mexico Center, UTSA. 2014.


Castillo-Villar, K.K., & Chávez, H. "Reliability Project in Toyota Manufacturing from Reactive to Proactive Maintenance, San Antonio, TX". The University of Texas at San Antonio, Technical Report, June 2014, 68 and 21 pages. Granting Agency: Toyota Motor Manufacturing Texas. 2014.

Biomass to Commodity Chemicals

University of Tulsa"Simulation-Based Optimization of Biomass Utilization to Energy and Commodity Chemicals"
Ismail Fahmi
University of Tulsa
PhD in Chemical Engineering • August 2013

Project presented at

fahmi aiche12AIChE Conference
Pittsburgh, PA
November 1, 2012

Go to ExtendSim presentationOral presentation
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Project published in

IChemEChemical Engineering Research and Design
Special Issue: Computer Aided Process Engineering (CAPE) Tools for a Sustainable World
Volume 91, Issue 8 • August 2013

Go to ExtendSim paperArticle


Incorporating non-traditional feedstocks, e.g., biomass, to chemical process industry (CPI) will require investments in research & development (R&D) and capacity expansions. The impact of these investments on the evolution of biomass to commodity chemicals (BTCC) system should be studied to ensure a cost-effective transition with acceptable risk levels. The BTCC system includes both exogenous, e.g., product demands (decision-independent) and endogenous, e.g., the change in technology cost with investment levels (decision-dependent) uncertainties.

This paper presents a prototype simulation-based optimization (SIMOPT) approach to study the BTCC system evolution under exogenous and endogenous uncertainties, and provides a preliminary analysis of the impact of using three different sampling methods, i.e., Monte Carlo, Latin Hypercube, and Halton sequence, to generate the simulation runs on the computational cost of the SIMOPT approach. We realized that the simulation-based optimization framework that we developed has two major computational costs:

the cost associated with the required number of samples to obtain the model with sufficient statistical significance.

the cost associated with solving the optimization problem.

The results of a simplified case study suggest that annual demand increases is the dominant factor for the total cost of the BTCC system. The results also suggest that using Halton sequence as the sampling method yields the smallest number of samples, i.e., the least computational cost, to achieve a statistically significant solution. Other conclusions that we can take from this work are:

BTCC system evolution is highly dependent on the costs of the raw material.

Investing in the non-renewable processing technologies is attractive in long term.

The developed SIMOPT framework can be used to include the endogenous and exogenous uncertainties of the BTCC system evolution.

The developed optimization module is universal, meaning that it is independent of technology types.

The developed optimization module can also incorporate the relationships between maturity stage and the ability to incorporate to overall production.

Halton series is shown to be the most appropriate sampling method.

Bilinear relaxation with linearly segmented tight relaxation coupled with nonlinear terms relaxation with linear upper and under estimators is shown to be able to obtain a good initialization for the optimization module.

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Other Publications by this Researcher

Fahmi, Ismail and Selen Cremaschi. "A Prototype Simulation-based Optimization Approach to Model Feedstock Development for Chemical Industry". Proceedings of the 22nd European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering, 2012.


Fahmi, Ismail and Selen Cremaschi. "Stage-gate Representation of Feedstock Development for Chemical Process Industry". Foundations of Computer-Aided Process Operations, 2012.

Call Centers -- Routing Rules

UCSC"Knowledge Management in Call Centers: How Routing Rules Influence Expertise in the Presence of On-the-Job Learning"
Geoffrey Ryder
University of California at Santa Cruz
PhD in Operations Research • March 16, 2011


In this paper, the effect that routing rules have on agent learning is researched. A nonlinear optimization framework for two kinds of expertise objectives are developed: one that seeks equal distribution of experience across the workforce (effectively cross-training) and one that aims to develop specialized expertise by prioritizing the routing of specific customer inquiries to specific agents. Analytical models of call center operations are inadequate to handle this task, so instead we turn to discrete-event simulation, and evaluate the effect of routing policies on agent expertise with a custom simulator developed in the ExtendSim modeling environment. Simulation results describe an efficient frontier in routing policies that depends on the underlying expertise objective function.

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Other Publications by this Researcher

Ryder, G. "Managing Changing Service Capacity Based on Agent Performance Data". INFORMS Annual Meeting, Service Industry III Session, Nov. 7, 2007.


Ryder, G. "How Learning and Forgetting Affect the Optimal Work Policy." INFORMS Annual Meeting, Management of Complex Service Systems Session, Nov. 4, 2007.


Ryder, G. and Ross, K. "Optimal Service Rules in the Presence of Learning and Forgetting". Sixteenth Annual Frontiers in Service Conference, San Francisco. October 4, 2007.


Ryder, G., Ross, K., and Musacchio, J. "Optimal service policies under learning effects". International Journal of Services and Operations Management, Issue 6, Vol. 4, 2008.


Ryder, G. and Ross, K. "Optimal service policies in the presence of learning and forgetting". Applied Probability Track, INFORMS Annual Conference, Pittsburg, PA, 2006.


Ryder, G. "A probability collectives approach to weighted clustering algorithms for ad hoc networks". IASTED CCN Conference, Marina Del Rey, CA, October 2005.

Chemical -- Processing Multi-Products

Carnegie Mellon University"An Efficient Method for Optimal Design of Large-Scale Integrated Chemical Production Sites with Endogenous Uncertainty"
Sebastian Terrazas-Morenoa, Ignacio E. Grossmanna, John M. Wassick, Scott J. Bury, Naoko Akiya
Carnegie Mellon University
PhD in Chemical Engineering • March 2012

Project published in

Computers & Chemical Engineering
Volume 37 • February 2012


Integrated sites are tightly interconnected networks of large-scale chemical processes. Given the large-scale network structure of these sites, disruptions in any of its nodes, or individual chemical processes, can propagate and disrupt the operation of the whole network. Random process failures that reduce or shut down production capacity are among the most common disruptions. The impact of such disruptive events can be mitigated by adding parallel units and/or intermediate storage. In this paper, the design of large-scale, integrated sites considering random process failures in addressed. In a previous work (Terrazas-Moreno et al., 2010), a novel mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model was proposed to maximize the average production capacity of an integrated site while minimizing the required capital investment. The present work deals with the solution of large-scale problem instances for which a strategy is proposed that consists of two elements. On one hand, we use Benders decomposition to overcome the combinatorial complexity of the MILP model. On the other hand, we exploit discrete-rate simulation tools to obtain a relevant reduced sample of failure scenarios or states. We first illustrate this strategy in a small example. Next, we address an industrial case study where we use a detailed simulation model to assess the quality of the design obtained from the MILP model.

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Original paper

"A Mixed-Integer Linear Programming Model for Optimizing the Scheduling and Assignment of Tank Farm operations"
Sebastian Terrazas-Morenoa, Ignacio E. Grossmanna, John M. Wassick
Carnegie Mellon University


This paper presents a novel mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation for the Tank Farm Operation Problem (TFOP), which involves simultaneous scheduling of continuous multi-product processing lines and the assignment of dedicated storage tanks to finished products. The objective of the problem is to minimize blocking of the finished lines by obtaining an optimal schedule and an optimal allocation of storage resources. The novelty of this work is the integration of a tank assignment problem with a scheduling problem where a dedicated storage tank has to be chosen from a tank farm given the volumes, sequencing, and timing of production of a series of products. The scheduling part of the model is based on the Multi-operation Sequencing (MOS) model by Mouret et al., (2011). The formulation is tested in three examples of different size and complexity.

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Construction -- Production Variability

Pontificia Universidad"Work-In-Process Buffer Design Methodology for Scheduling Repetitive Building Projects"
Vicente González, Luis Fernando Alarcón, and Pedro Gazmuri
Pontificia Universidad de Católica de Chile
PhD in Construction • July 2008


gonzalez modelVariability in production is one of the largest factors that negatively impacts construction project performance. A common construction practice to protect production systems from variability is the use of buffers (Bf). Construction practitioners and researchers have proposed buffering approaches for different production situations, but these approaches have faced practical limitations in their application. 

In Multiobjective Design of Work-In-Process Buffer for Scheduling Repetitive Building Projects, a multiobjective analytic model (MAM) is proposed to develop a graphical solution for the design of Work-In-Process (WIP) Bf in order to overcome these practical limitations to Bf application, being demonstrated through the scheduling of repetitive building projects. Multiobjective analytic modeling is based on Simulation–Optimization (SO) modeling and Pareto Fronts concepts. Simulation–Optimization framework uses Evolutionary Strategies (ES) as the optimization search approach, which allows for the design of optimum WIP Bf sizes by optimizing different project objectives (e.g., project cost, time and productivity). The framework is tested and validated on two repetitive building projects. The SO framework is then generalized through Pareto Front concepts, allowing for the development of the MAM as nomographs for practical use. The application advantages of the MAM are shown through a project scheduling example. Results demonstrate project performance improvements and a more efficient and practical design of WIP Bf. Additionally, production strategies based on WIP Bf and lean production principles in construction are discussed.

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Other Publications by this Researcher

González, V., Alarcón, L.F. and Gazmuri, P. "Design of Work In Process Buffers in Repetitive Projects: A Case Study". 14th International Conference for Lean Construction, Santiago, Chile, July 2006.

González, V. and Alarcón, L.F. "Design and Management of WIP Buffers in Repetitive Projects" (White Paper), 2005.


González, V., Rischmoller, L. and Alarcón, L.F. "Management of Buffers in Repetitive Projects: Using Production Management Theory and IT Tools". PhD Summer School, 12th International Conference for Lean Construction, Helsinore, Denmark, August 2004.


González, V., Rischmoller, L. and Alarcón, L.F. "Design of Buffers in Repetitive Projects: Using Production Management Theory and IT Tools". 4th International Postgraduate Research Conference, University of Salford, Manchester, U.K., April 2004.


González, V. and Alarcón, L.F. "Buffer de Programación: Schedule Buffers: A Complementary Strategy to Reduce the Variability in the Processes of Construction", Revista Ingeniería de Construcción Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Volume 18 . Nº 2, pp 109 - 119, Mayo - Agosto 2003.

Cross-Docking -- Part I

University of Pennsylvania"CDAP Simulation Report"
Zongze Chen
University of Pennsylvania
Masters in Electrical & Systems Engineering • May 13, 2010


In this project we collaborated with National Retail Systems (NRS) who provided us with realistic cross-dock situations and data to study and to evaluate our modeling and optimization result. The NRS's North Bergen facility receives goods from multiple vendors, sorts and loads them onto outbound trailer trucks for a number of retail stores. Using ExtendSim, I developed a simulation  to model of two cross-docks in operation of their New Jersey facility. There were several main objectives to be achieved:

Develop the model of cross-dock process. For simplicity, we started the development with a 4×4 cross-dock. Later, this would be expanded to realistic dimensions.

Use the data generated from the GQ3AP algorithm we developed previously to simulate the process and analyze the total cost under the situation and discuss the optimization.

Improve our optimization models to take into account the impact of truck arrival and departure times. Determine how one can improve cross-docking operations and what costs could be reduced through improved operational control.

The final report describes how simulation helps ensure success of cross-docking systems by determining optimal routing costs. Modeling methods and issues are also discussed as they apply to cross-docking. This report includes discussion of the actual processes employed by NRS, description of our models, simulation results and comparisons, and our conclusions.


The initial phase of the project involved data collection and acquisition including OD freight volumes and scheduling times. In the next phase in cooperation with NRS, we developed a discrete cross-dock simulation model and found the best optimization methods. Finally, we incorporated what we  learned into a set of suggested optimization procedures.

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Other Reports by this Researcher

Course Reports in OPIM 910 course (introduction to optimization theory):
Personalized Diet Plans Optimization
University of Pennsylvania Evacuation Plan Design
Classroom Scheduling

Course Reports in STAT 541 course (Statistics Methods):
Boston Real Estate Analysis

Course Reports in STAT 520 course (Applied Econometrics):
Salary Weight Analysis by Gender

Research Assistant on Project at Management Department of Wharton:
Entrepreneurship and Strategy

Cross-Docking -- Part II

University of Pennsylvania"Anticipating Labor and Processing Needs of Cross-Dock Operations"
Frederick Abiprabowo
University of Pennsylvania
Operations Research • December 2012

Project presented and awarded at

Abiprabowo awardDuring the INFORMS Annual Conference 2013, the design team of Frederick Abiprabowo, Napat Harinsuit, Samuel Lim, and Willis Zhang, all from the University of Pennsylvania, were awarded the Undergraduate Operations Research Prize. This competition is held each year to honor a student or group of students who conducted a significant applied project in operations research or management science, and/or original and important theoretical or applied research in operations research or management science, while enrolled as an undergraduate student.

Their paper "Designing a Simulation Tool for Commercial Cross-Docking Application" uses ExtendSim to dynamically replicate the operations of a large cross docking facility. The prototype model serves as a tool that enables cross-dock operators to evaluate assignment strategies in a risk-free, costless environment.


In the supply chain literature, there are generally three kinds of studies regarding cross-docking:

fundamentals of cross-dock

distribution planning

operations inside the facility

Studies of cross-dock fundamentals take a high-level perspective and discuss the issues of cross-docking in relations to a company’s distribution process, management, etc. Cross-docking can also be viewed as a method in the management of a supply chain. Distribution planning problems pertain to scheduling of trucks, vehicle routing, and network navigation. Finally, there are many research papers regarding the operations inside cross-docks.

Zongze Chen’s CDAP simulation report dealt with the operations inside the cross-docking facility and discussed the formulation of goods movement inside a cross-dock as a GQ3AP. Then, a simulation model was designed after one of the cross-docking facilities of a retail company in New Jersey. This model was then tested to compare the cost of goods movement in two different scenarios: 

GQ3AP-optimized door assignment

manual door assignment

Based on the results of this test, the scenario with optimized door assignment did yield a lower cost than the one without.

This report continues where the previous report left off and addressed its proposed future plans for the model.

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Education -- Optimizing Performance of Educational Processes

University of Split"Higher Education Management in Relation to Process Organization Theory"
Maja Cukusic
University of Split
PhD in Business Informatics • March 2011

Project published as

"Online self-assessment and students' success in higher education institutions"
Maja Ćukušić, Željko Garača, Mario Jadrić
Computers & Education - An International Journal
March 2014 • ISSN 0360-1315


Cukusic modelThis paper validates effects of online self-assessment tests as a formative assessment strategy in one of the first year undergraduate courses. Achieved students' results such as test scores and pass rates are compared for three different generations for the same course but also judged against the exam results of other courses taught in the same semester. The analysis points out that there is a statistically significant difference between the groups for half-semester tests and exam pass rates after online self-assessment tests were introduced. Positive effects on students' success are approximated for the overall institution using a simulation model. Results point out that a small increase in pass rates could significantly impact the overall success i.e. decrease of dropout rates.

The research model that preceded the simulation explored the correlation between ICT support of educational processes and their outcomes. In order to test the impact of ICT support a sub-process was chosen: extensive self-evaluation quizzes delivered via e-learning system were designed, implemented and monitored within a first-year university course. The results were controlled and measured with regards to students’ outcomes achieved during the previous and current academic year in several courses (horizontal and vertical control of the results). Given the correlations between variables that characterize support of the educational process and outcomes on tests and exams, ICT support of the educational process has a positive effect as expressed in terms of relevant performance indicators.

A simulation model was developed which allows extrapolation of the impact on key performance indicators (i.e. drop-out rate and study completion time) for the whole institution enabling analysis of potential opportunities. The model adheres to study regulations of the Faculty of Economics (University of Split) and simulates outcomes for a generation of undergraduate students. Simulated results were compared with the actual data from the information system to verify the correctness of the model.

Not all course environments allow implementation of self-evaluation quizzes that result in slightly better exam pass-rate (roughly about 3%). Consequently, the simulation experiment investigates the process change for only half of the courses and only for the largest group of students (60%). As a result, the percentage of students who drop out from their studies could be significantly lower, 36% compared to 45.67% in real-life. For the entire system, this relatively small per-course improvement in exam results has a strong overall effect.

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Other Publications by this Researcher

For a complete list of publications by Maja Ćukušić, please go to http://bib.irb.hr/lista-radova?autor=300571.

Healthcare -- Emergency Department Crowding

Wharton School"The Financial Consequences of Lost Demand and Reducing Boarding in Hospital Emergency Departments"
Bob Batt
University of Pennsylvania • Wharton School
PhD in Operations Management • April 2011

Project published in and presented at

Annals of Emergency MedicineResults of Mr. Batt's project was published in the Annals of Emergency Medicine in October 2011. The American College of Emergency Physicians thought the findings were so significant that they issued a press release about the paper. The main find was that reducing emergency department boarding by one hour could generate approximately $2.7M per year if dynamic admitting policies are used to control elective patient arrivals.  POMSThis is a novel finding in that no previous work has put together the revenue gains from the ED of reducing boarding with the potential revenue reductions from reducing elective patients. Mr. Batt presented this paper at the Production & Operations Management Society conference Conference in Reno, Nevada on April 29, 2011.


Bob Batt modelThis project explores the operational ramifications of crowding in hospital emergency departments. A common indicator of crowding is patients “boarding” in the emergency department while awaiting transfer to an inpatient bed in the hospital. Boarding is a controversial topic in the medical community because it has been suggested that it is a way to tacitly prioritize high-dollar elective patients over lower-value emergency patients. However, the financial impact of boarding is not obvious since boarding creates congestion in the emergency department leading to higher levels of lost demand from patients leaving without treatment and ambulances being diverted. We use discrete event simulation to model a hospital under various boarding regimes and patient prioritization schemes. We find that reducing boarding can be not only operationally efficient but also financially beneficial for the hospital.This project explores the operational ramifications of crowding in hospital emergency departments. A common indicator of crowding is patients “boarding” in the emergency department while awaiting transfer to an inpatient bed in the hospital. Boarding is a controversial topic in the medical community because it has been suggested that it is a way to tacitly prioritize high-dollar elective patients over lower-value emergency patients. However, the financial impact of boarding is not obvious since boarding creates congestion in the emergency department leading to higher levels of lost demand from patients leaving without treatment and ambulances being diverted. We use discrete event simulation to model a hospital under various boarding regimes and patient prioritization schemes. We find that reducing boarding can be not only operationally efficient but also financially beneficial for the hospital.

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Healthcare -- Nanomedicine

Janet Cheung
University of Southern California
Non-profit research project • January 2015

Project details

As part of a completely non-profit research project organized by our advisor, we aimed to answer the question of how effective the methodology of using nanobots can be for curing cancer as compared to the existing cancer drug because nanobots could integrate the diagnosis and treatment of cancer in a cohesive, potentially non-invasive unit through precise, targeted operations on the cellular level.

The key problems of conventional technology are the methods of drug delivery and the concentration of the drug cocktail required to destroy the cancerous cells. So nanobots would potentially allow the drugs to be directed to exact location where cancerous cells have been observed. Thus, only the malignant tissues are affected, and healthy tissues are not. As a result, nanomedicine does have the potential to revolutionize the way medicine is practiced around the world, but it is clear that biocompatibility on the nanoscale is one of many major challenges that must be overcome.

Cheung modelThe model created focuses on drug delivery via the bloodstream (which is the most common and preferred method of delivery). It has the skeletons for active and passive targeting nanobots. The nanobots simulate flowing through the bloodstream until it is attracted to the tumor. Additionally, the model accounts for various possible drug delivery failures (i.e. early deployment of the drug, power failure, and time constraints). For now, the model determines when the failures occur using various probability distributions as placeholders for more legitimate values. Upon failure, the representation of the nanobot exits the model. The number of each type of failure can be viewed in a bar graph. In the event of a successful nanobot to tumor attachment, the representative nanobot in the model incurs latency, which accounts for attaching to the tumor and actual drug deployment. The number of successful deliveries to the number of failed deliveries can be seen in another bar graph available.The model focuses on drug delivery via the bloodstream (which is the most common and preferred method of delivery). It has the skeletons for active and passive targeting nanobots. The nanobots simulate flowing through the bloodstream until it is attracted to the tumor. Additionally, the model accounts for various possible drug delivery failures (i.e. early deployment of the drug, power failure, and time constraints). For now, the model determines when the failures occur using various probability distributions as placeholders for more legitimate values. Upon failure, the representation of the nanobot exits the model. The number of each type of failure can be viewed in a bar graph. In the event of a successful nanobot to tumor attachment, the representative nanobot in the model incurs latency, which accounts for attaching to the tumor and actual drug deployment. The number of successful deliveries to the number of failed deliveries can be seen in another bar graph available.

The model also has toxicity and biocompatibility factored into it. The body has an assumed toxicity capacity, which is the level that it can contain the toxins and still be healthy. Each drug has its own toxicity level, which is inversely proportional to its biocompatibility. The nanobots release the toxins into the bloodstream per failed drug delivery, which gradually increases the current toxicity level in the body. As with the probability distributions for the drug delivery failures, I have implemented placeholder values. These placeholder values can all be easily replaced with more accurate values with further research.

Further research

In June of 2016, Michael Schlesinger of USC was awarded an ExtendSim Research Grant to take Ms. Cheung's research one step further. Mr. Schlesinger is investigating how to design and fabricate a robot with biopsy, imaging, and drug delivery capabilities. Details can be found on the Research Grants in Progress page.

Healthcare -- Patient Flow

Purdue University"Essays on Efficiency in Service Oeprations: Applications in Health Care"
John Norris
Purdue University
PhD in Management, Quantitative Methods • December 2007


Partnering with Indiana University Medical Group (IUMG), the author focused on outpatient care:

Address the issue of missed appointments.

Analyze variability in patient flow.

Analyze performance of phone system.

...to analyze and improve patient flow at an outpatient clinic of the Indiana University Medical Group. Queuing concepts were used to uncover sources of variability and to generate ideas to improve clinic operations that would mitigate the undesirable effect of variability. norris modelA process map, that matched the process at the clinic, was developed and validated. Data on task times was collected by observing the process with stopwatch or from historical records. A simulation model corresponding to the process map was developed, and the output was validated. Several ideas to modify clinic operations were tested on the validated simulation model. The overall result was an improvement in both the mean and the standard deviation of patient wait time, as well as higher utilization of physicians’ time. The clinic has implemented several of their recommendations and experienced improvements consistent with model predictions.

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Healthcare -- Public Health

Yale University"Choosing Number and Scheduling Priority of Warm-hand Offs: A DES Model"
Evelyn Cumberbatch
Yale University
Masters Thesis for Yale School of Public Health • May 2014


The integration of behavioral health care into primary care is being promoted as a means to treat more people with behavioral health problems where they are most likely to be seen. Clinics with traditional behavioral health services may open slots among scheduled appointments to see these "warm-hand off" (WHO) patients identified by primary care providers (PCPs). The effects of giving priority for behavioral health appointments to either scheduled or WHO patients and of the number of appointments left open for WHO patients are investigated in this project.

cumberbatch modelA discrete event simulation model was built of a moderately integrated clinic. WHO patients arrive randomly, on average 4 per day per PCP, and wait to see behavioral health providers (BHPs) who also see scheduled patients. Simulations of four clinic sizes, with PCP to BHP ratios of 1:1, were run. Effects of queue discipline (priority is given to scheduled or WHO patients) and the number of open WHO slots (3 or 5) are analyzed. Outcomes include the percent of scheduled patients served, the percent of WHO patients served, and the percent of BHP utilization.

In clinics with 1 PCP and 1 BHP, for 3 and 5 open slots respectively, giving priority to WHO patients resulted in 80.6% and 81.0% of WHO patients served and 84.4% and 86.6% of scheduled patients served, however, giving priority to scheduled patients resulted in 97.8% and 98.1% of scheduled patients served, but 32.0% and 47.9% of WHO patients served. A similar pattern was seen for larger clinics, though the percent of WHO patients served increased for both 3 and 5 open slots with clinic size. Having 3 or 5 open slots led to few differences when WHO patients were given priority, but when scheduled patients were given priority, choosing 5 open slots rather than 3 open slots, increased the percent of WHO patients served by 15-20 percentage points across the clinic sizes. In either queue discipline, changing from 3 to 5 open slots reduced the percent of BHP utilization by approximately 8 percentage points for all clinic sizes. When WHO patients were given priority, the average wait time for scheduled patients increased from approximately 2-5 minutes to 13-19 minutes across clinic sizes.

These results might suggest to some clinics attempting to integrate primary care and traditional behavioral health services to choose to give WHO patients priority. However, it is recognized that there are costs associated with not seeing both scheduled and WHO patients, and clinics making this decision will have to weigh these tradeoffs. The analysis of these results provides one framework to assist in choosing between different arrangements for integration.

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Other Publications by this Researcher

During Dr. Cumberbatch's psychiatry residency at University California, San Francisco:

Pole, N., Cumberbatch, E., et. al. "Comparisons Between High and Low Peritraumatic Dissociators in Cardiovascular and Emotional Activity While Remembering Trauma",  Journal of Trauma and Dissociation, 2005; 6(4): 51-67.

Information Security

Gjovik University"Analyzing Security Decisions with Discrete Event Simulation"
Magnus Felde
Gjøvik University
Masters in Information Security • June 28, 2010


As organizations become increasingly more dependent on information security in order to succeed, the security decisions made by the Chief Information Security Officer (CISO) also becomes important and needs to be considered in the context of the organization. However, since the complexity of the organization's internal processes and the threats the organization is facing, the CISO needs a decision making tool or method in order to determine the effects of a specific security decision. Because of this, we have in this thesis determined the suitability of utilizing Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and Discrete Event Simulation (DES) as a method to help the CISO make the "best" security decision for his organization.

Felde modelThe thesis is based on a health care specific scenario which has been constructed in collaboration with Akershus University Hospital (Ahus), Rheumatism Hospital at Lillehammer and Buypass. The scenario includes a patient treatment process and the processes related to the usage of smart cards and passwords as authentication mechanisms. Furthermore, KPIs which focuses on time usage and number of deviations has been identified, where deviations within this health care specific scenario relates to more traditional security incidents.

A case study was then conducted based on the scenario. The results of this case study indicate no statistical significant difference between the two authentication mechanisms with regards to the average time a doctor uses on a business activity. However, based on the number of deviations identified, smart cards were determined the preferred security measure of the two.

In order to determine the suitability of the simulation approach, a second case study was also conducted. This second case study was based on the same scenario, but this time with a non-simulation approach. By comparing the process surrounding the two case studies, the non-simulation approach were determined the most cost-effective approach and the approach which provided the most direct link between the input data and the results. Based on this, the non-simulation approach was also determined the most suitable approach. However, we did determine that for "what if" analysis, the simulation approach becomes the best choice of the two.

Should a "what if" analysis be desirable, we have in this thesis proposed a new methodology which modelers can utilize in order to reduces the complexity of the model building process. The methodology, called Minimalistic Model Design (MIMD), excludes the temporal relationship between the identified business activities within the business process. This exclusion helps to reduce total time used on the model building process, and enables better scalability.

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Kanban Approach in Software Development

National University of Ireland, Galway"Limiting Work in Progress but Liberating Progress in Work; Utilising Process Simulation and Theories of Social Science to Understand the Value of Kanban for Software Development"
James Moriarty
National University of Ireland, Galway
Masters in Information Technology • August 2014


"The Toyota Production System" first utilised just-in-time with Kanban as a method of visualising the work being completed. Inheriting from lean and agile software development philosophies, Kanban emerged for software development. The Kanban approach has few rules yet it is a powerful tool to evolve a software process.

moriarty modelIn this study, ExtendSim simulation software is used to model a Kanban approach. The ease of model creation and the potential for adaptability are both assessed. In addition, literature from social sciences are examined for evidence to support the benefits Kanban can bring to people in the software development process.

This study succeeded in creating a simulation of the Kanban approach for software development. A Kanban board was simulated to serve as a foundation from which other processes could be modelled accurately through modification or evolution. Lead time and cycle time indicate performance depending on the changes to work-in-progress limits of the various stages.

Evaluation of social science literature provides support for the human benefits associated with the implementation of Kanban. The simulation model provides meaningful data, but lacking real data prevents the model being broadly valid. Kanban and simulation appear to complement one another which is worthy of future study.

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Lean Manufacturing

Middle Tennessee University"Simulation of Lean Manufacturing Concepts using Extendsim Software"
Mark Young
Middle Tennessee State University
Engineering Technology • December 2012

Project description

In support of ET 6390 Lean Manufacturing, the visualization of core concepts for the class is important for increased comprehension. After polling the engineering and operations management curriculum about the use of simulation software, Mr. Young discovered it is not practiced on a frequent basis in either college at MTSU. 

Using simulation software, specifically ExtendSim, as a tool for visualizing the push/pull/constrained WIP modeling, Mr. Young made the work available and in a form that, if so desired, could be readily adapted to the curriculum of ET 6390.

Project outcome

Mr. Young produced 3 videos for the course ET 6390 - Productivity Strategies/Lean Systems using ExtendSim:

Simulating Little's Law with Penny Fab. Four identical tools in series.

Penny Fab 2. Four stations with different processing times.

Push & Pull Simulation. Side by Side Model.

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YouTubeYouTube Channel with models

Manufacturing -- Creating a Production System

Lulea University of Technology"Simulation of a Manufacturing Process - Military Aircrafts"
Sandra Fors
Luleå Technical University
Master of Science in Engineering Technology • July 2016


fors saabThe military aircraft manufacturing division at Saab Aeronautics is ready to enter the future of production systems and leap ahead in their field. Saab predicts an increase in demand of military aircrafts. To meet this new higher customer demand, this master's thesis is a part of a project to create a new production system.

Ms. Fors' Master's thesis includes following steps, each of which she thoroughly validated:

A simulation model of a production system for military aircraft manufacturing.

A system analysis and identification of bottlenecks through investigation of the queues in the simulation model.

Testing of improvement suggestions.

A simulation model which tests different production volumes.

Recommendations for how to increase production volume by time, with solutions from two different development processes.

fors modelThe result of this thesis presents concepts on how to build a production system for military aircraft, including number of stations, improvement areas, and results of improvement suggestions on a general level. The simulation model created for this project presented the possibility to test a lot of scenarios and suggest improvements to find the best solution. The use of simulation software as an initial part of this project has proven successful and is recommended for use in the project in the future.

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Manufacturing -- Using RFID Technology for Routing

Arab Academy"Evaluating the Impact of Introducing RFID Technology in Manufacturing Systems Using Simulation"
Aly Mohamed Owida
Arab Academy for Science, Technology, & Maritime Transport
Master of Science in Industrial and Management Engineering • May 2011

Project presented at

ICCIE41st International Conference on Computers and Industrial Engineering
October 23 to 26, 2011



Radio frequency identification (RFID) technology has significant impact on product tracking and identification in manufacturing systems. Most of the business cases that implement the RFID technology in their operations have achieved various benefits. RFID technology can reduce the operating errors that affect the efficiency of the operations which results in improving different performance measures such as cycle time, throughput, work-in-process, resources utilization, and average waiting time in queues. In addition, several benefits such as improved items monitoring, lower lead times, and better inventory control can be achieved by introducing RFID technology. Recent developments in RFID technology and other supporting technologies have created opportunities for real-time traceability and better visibility inRadio frequency identification (RFID) technology has significant impact on product tracking and identification in manufacturing systems. Most of the business cases that implement the RFID technology in their operations have achieved various benefits. RFID technology can reduce the operating errors that affect the efficiency of the operations which results in improving different performance measures such as cycle time, throughput, work-in-process, resources utilization, and average waiting time in queues. In addition, several benefits such as improved items monitoring, lower lead times, and better inventory control can be achieved by introducing RFID technology. Recent developments in RFID technology and other supporting technologies have created opportunities for real-time traceability and better visibility inshop floor operations.

owida modelThis paper investigates the effectiveness of introducing RFID technology in tracking and identification processes for products flow in a job shop manufacturing facility. A leading furniture manufacturer in Egypt has been selected as a case study. The manufacturer produces a large number of customized furniture products. Errors in tracking and identification usually occur due to the large number of products present on the shop floor. Introduction of radio frequency identification technology at different stages of manufacturing is proposed to overcome these errors. Different simulation models have been developed for the post-assembly processes in the facility. These models have been developed with an intent to capture all the features that characterize a real furniture manufacturing facility. Simulation is used to assess the impact of introducing the RFID technology on a number of performance measures. Analysis and comparison of simulation results for the base and proposed models show that RFID implementation can improve the overall performance of the facility.

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Other Publications by this Researcher

A. M. Owida, K. S. El-Kilany, and A. E. El-Sayed. "Analytical Hierarchy Process for Selection of RFID System: An Application in Retail Supply Chains". Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Flexible Automation & Intelligent Manufacturing, 2010.

Neural Networks -- SimNeural Technology

Universities of Ottawa and Brasilia"SimNeural: Simulador Computacional de RNA para Aplicaçoes em Ensino e Pesquisas Medicas e Biologicas" ("SimNeural: Computer Simulation of ANN for Learning and Research Purposes")
Carlos Alberto Gonçalves
Joint collaboration through the Centre for E-Learning at both the University of Brasília and the University of Ottawa
PostDoc in Education and E-Learning • October 2013


This research work is part of collaboration between the University of Brasilia (DF, Brazil) and the University of Ottawa (ON, Canada) and was carried out with other researchers from the University of Brasília: Bruno Bastos Neves, Jussie Marques Martins, and Wilson Henrique Veneziano. This project was designed to improve the quality of teaching materials of the former university with the know-how of the latter.

Computer simulation and pattern recognition by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques has become an important tool for learning and professional purposes. This work reports the phases of design, development, and validation of the SimNeural software, that was conceived to be easy to use by professionals of Medical and Biological Sciences when working in research or learning purposes.

Computer simulation and pattern recognition by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques has become an important tool for learning and professional purposes. This work reports the phases of design, development, and validation of the SimNeural software, that was conceived to be easy to use by professionals of Medical and Biological Sciences when working in research or learning purposes.

SimNeural was implemented in ExtendSim using the technique called component prototyping and recycling. SimNeural´s main objective is to be a framework where the user can easily configure and simulate models of ANN. For instance, it should be easy to implement hypothesis tests or to check the relationship among variables. To achieve that goal, the authors used ANN multilayer perceptrons and backpropagation learning. For the validation and test of this tool, they asked SimNeural to build and train some models.

This paper presents the following results:

The ANN training phase that was used for the validation of the software.

Sample analysis results.

Experimental test results designed for pattern recognition and classification of real biological and medical databases.The results showed that SimNeural can be a useful and effective tool for applications at research and learning.

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Other Publications by this Researcher

Venezuano, W.H.; Rocha, A.F.; Goncalves, C.A.; Pena, A.J.; Carmo, J.C.; Nascimento, F.A.O.; Rainoldi, A. "Confounding factors in water EMG recordings: an approach to a definitive standard". Medical & Biological Engineering & Computing, v. 44, p. 348-351, 2006.


Goncalves, C.A.; Cardoso, I.P.; Carvalho, T.C.; Freire, V.D. "Action Potential Propagation/Propagate do Potential". (CD-ROM, Simulation Software)/Publisher: Editorial Universidade de Brasilia, DF, Brazil, 2005.

Nogueira, E.L.; Correia, A.C.; Silva, R.A.; Goncalves, C.A.; Mota, Y.L. "Electromyographic assessment of the effect of age over paravertebral muscles/O efeito do envelhecimento nos mœsculos paravertebrais lombares investigado pela eletromiografia". In XI Congresso Brasileiro de Biomecica, 2005, Joo Pessoa. Anais do XI Congresso Brasileiro de Biomecnica, 2005. v. I. p. 1-4.

Cardoso, I.P.; Oliveira, C.C.S.; Freire, V.D.; Goncalves, C.A. "A methodology for building hypermedia courses in Physiology/Uma metodologia para desenvolver aulas em formato hiperm’dia para o ensino de fisiologia". In FeSBE2004-XIX Reunio da Federao de Sociedades de Biologia Experimental, 2004, çguas de Linda, Brazil, 2004.

Brasil-Neto, J.P.; Goncalves, C.A.; Lima, R.R.F.; Pessoa, V.F. "Development of a Computer-Based Method System for Studying Human Stereopsis: Contribution to the Study of Human Speed of Detection of Visual Depth". IEEE Computer Society, v. 1, p. 134-138, 1997.

NewOil & Gas -- Production Availability Analysis in Subsea Environments

"Production Availability Analysis: Implications on Modelling due to Subsea Conditions"
NTNUTianqi Sun
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Department of Ocean Operations and Civil Engineering
Masters in Production Assurance • June 2017


Sun subsea environmentSubsea production and processing systems have become a hot topic among research institutes and industries. While highlighting the advantages on production and economy, the reliability issues show a different picture with limited access, difficulty of maintenance and possibly lower availability. The influence of these issues on the system performance is studied in this paper to evaluate the benefit of subsea systems.


Production availability analysis has shown its potential in system optimization. Two main approaches, namely analytical and simulation, are used for analysis. ExtendSim was used in this process to reveal the use of the simulation approach and provide numerical results for this study. As subsea production continues to trend upward in the oil and gas industry, identifying the influencing factors and exploring how to conduct analysis in a subsea environment will be necessitated.

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NewPapermaking -- Machinery

Munich University"Simulation of a Paper Machine with the Simulation Software FlowMac"
Joseph Niedermayer
Munich University of Applied Science
Masters in Papertechnology • January 2017


Working in conjunction with Øivind Opdal, FlowMac engineer, Mr. Niedermayer used ExtendSim + FlowMac to build a simulation model to find weak parts or bottlenecks of a paper machine's wet end for the world leader in the design, development, and manufacturing of thinner, more sustainable, tailor-made speciality papers.

The model created precisely predicts mass flows helping the manufacturer to better understand the paper making process. They used the model to:

Help determine the proper size of the mixing chest

Realize the impact of different retention values during the simulation

Evaluate white water consistency

Determine the required mixing pump power to run a new quality on a machine

By request from the company, Mr. Niedermayer has changed the speed and grammage of the produced paper in the provided model to reflect it's proprietary content.

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Process Improvement -- Increasing Throughput

Cal Poly"Screen Printing Scheduling Methodology"
Brandon Wolfe & Kyle Naylor
California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo
Bachelor of Science in Graphic Communication • May 2010 completed

Project presented as

A Senior Project presented to the Faculty of the Graphic Communication Department


Wolfe-Naylor modelAs the shift towards offhore business within the screen printing industry increases, American businesses must find a way to remain competitive. Due to manufacturing costs and regulation it is impossible for Americans to compete with the low per unit cost of foreign suppliers. By decreasing the time to market, American businesses will be able to remain competitive and recover lost business. In order to achieve this, a flexible scheduling model must be developed in order to increase throughput of a production process. This model serves to account for variables and variances that occur within the screen printing process, allowing for effective continuation of production.

Results and Conclusions

After finishing the project, recommendations were made to engage students in the Graphic Communications department in learning the software and the fundamentals of the forward-thinking scheduling model. The basic program that was started has a lot of potential to be more dynamic and give more real-time analysis. The intent is to pass on the simulation to the department in hopes that it will continue to be built on and refined. Future projects along with this foundation model will serve to provide a valuable business tool for the screen printing industry. By implementing a forward thinking model along with visual representation software, printers will be able to remain competitive by improving their workflow and decreasing time to market.

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Production Line -- Flow Production

Lulea University of Technology"Produktionsutveckling av Funktionell Verkstad"
(Production Development of Functional Workshop)
Marcus Kullerstedt (& Asutay Altay)
Luleå University of Technology
Masters in Mechanical Engineering • October 2016


TurbinePresented in Swedish, this report presents a master thesis project conducted at Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB (SIT) in Finspång, Sweden. Due to a strong market and an increased global demand for industrial gas turbines, SIT decided to increase their production capacity. During this process, a bottleneck in the production of burners was found. This Master’s Thesis was created to evaluate possible solutions to this problem.

kullerstedt modelIn this report, the production of burners are evaluated first with a qualitative and quantitative study to gain knowledge of the true capacity. Then, a simulation model of the burner production is built in ExtendSim. The model shows that the capacity can be increased to meet demand without large investments, and also that there is a large potential for improvements, both in production methods and in planning. The use of simulation has made it possible to evaluate the above mentioned dilemmas without affecting daily work and to see the effect that disturbances have on lead time.

By request from the company, some sensitive content has been placed in a separate appendix, not available to the general public.

Results and Conclusions

From the simulation results, it is possible to ascertain that there is no major restructuring needed to be able to handle the increase in capacity. The employment of additional staff or further training of existing employees might be all that is needed to achieve the best results. Through further smaller investments there is the opportunity to inprove the entire production. The simulation model enables you to investigate in a short period of time and with minimal effort the actions that would result in the greatest increase in productivity, which can then be set in proportion to the cost of implementing each measure. Based on the simulation results, the recommendation is to reduce the batch size from today's mode to achieve a lower lead time and higher flexibility in production, however, this requires development of working methods.

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University of Cologne"Trading and Marketing of Recycled Glass"
Vera Schmidtmann
University of Cologne
Masters in Operations Research & Decision Support Systems • April 2011


schmidtmann modelIn Germany providers of so-called "dual systems" organize the collection and recycling of waste glass under the well-known license symbol "Der Grüne Punkt" ("The Green Dot").

Providers of dual systems coordinate which quantities the glass recycling plants obtain from the locally collected glass and which quantities the glass recycling plants deliver to which glassworks. The companies have to consider the transportation and storage costs. The problem is to determine the optimal distribution of the quantities in the network.

For the implementation of the simulation model, the simulation software ExtendSim AT was selected.

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Safety Instrumented Systems & Component Failure

University of Oslo"Safety Instrumented Systems Operated in the Intermediate Demand Mode"
Kristine Tveit
University of Oslo
Master of Science in Modeling & Data Science • December 2015


The frequency of demands are crucial when analysing a safety instrumented system (SIS). IEC 61508 distinguishes between low and high demand mode when calculating risk for such a system. In reality there are systems that can not clearly be placed in one of the two modes. These types of systems are called intermediate demand mode systems, which we will analyse in this thesis. Not many published SIS reliability studies focus on the problems related to this borderline. Oliveira [4] predicts somewhat strange behaviour for the hazard rate in the intermediate demand mode, as well as [2] with a focus on the demand duration.

The results from the analyses of a redundant system show that the standard Probability of Failure on Demand (PFD) formulae are usable for very low demand rates, but become increasingly more conservative as one moves into the intermediate mode, while the Probability of Failure per Hour (PFH) is non-conservative. This can cause major consequences for the operator of a safety system in the sense of not obtaining the optimal testing strategy, or even worse encounter a hazard.

tveit model

For more complex systems with several components the Markov approach has its limits, choice of distributions and maintenance details are also restricted. Discrete Event simulation can deal with such complex systems, and also the rare event problem that often is a challenge for safety system analysis can be handled satisfactorily.

By use of Harel Statechart and discrete event Monte Carlo simulations for different safety systems, it is shown that the intermediate demand mode is dependent on the relationship between the proof-tests, demands and repair duration. When a demand rate increases to a significant level, demands can be used as tests. With Harel Statecharts we can calculate realistic models that go beyond what a Markov model is capable of.

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Other Publications by this Researcher

S. Eisinger & L.F. Oliveira of DNV GL, Oslo & Rio and K. Tveit & B. Natvig, University of Oslo, Norway. "Safety Instrumented Systems operated in the Intermediate Demand Mode." ESREL Conference, September 8, 2015.

Service Systems -- Queue Analysis

USC"Managing Service Systems with an Offline Waiting Option and Customer Abandonment"
Vasiliki Kostami (with Sriram Dasu & Amy Ward)
University of Southern California
PhD in Operations Management • December 2008


Many service providers offer customers the choice of either waiting in a line, or going offline and returning at a dynamically determined future time. The best known example is the FASTPASS® system at Disneyland. To operate such a system, the service provider must first make an up front decision on how to allocate service capacity between the two lines. Then, during system operation, he must dynamically provide estimates of the waiting times at both lines to each arriving customer. The estimation of offline waiting times is complicated by the fact that some offline customers do not return for service at their appointed time.

"Managing Service Systems with an Offline Waiting Option and Customer Abandonment" shows that when demand is large and service is fast, for any fixed capacity allocation decision, the two-dimensional process tracking the number of customers waiting inline and offline collapses to one dimension, and characterize the one-dimensional limit process as a reflected diffusion with linear drift. Next, using the one-dimensional limit process to develop approximations for the steady-state distribution of the number of customers waiting inline and offline, the steady-state probability of abandonment from the offline queue, and to dynamically estimate inline and offline waits for each arriving customer is used. The paper concludes by considering a cost model that optimizes the up front capacity allocation decision.

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Supply Chain -- Channel Sourcing

KTH"Impact of Unauthorized Distributors on the Supply Chain and Financial Performance of Companies"
Youness Eaidgah
Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan
Master of Science in Production Engineering & Management • August 2012


Global supply chains, shorter product life cycles, and technological innovation have made supply chain management a critical issue for a firm’s success. By improving service and reducing costs, efficient supply chain management brings companies competitive advantage and helps them to outperform their competitors. Due to tight supply or unfavorable conditions, an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) might occasionally find itself in a situation where it is not able or willing to source its required raw material from an authorized channel. In this case, OEM options narrow down to waiting until the item become available in the authorized channel (backlogging its customer orders), sourcing from unauthorized channel, or cancelling customer orders. Each one of these scenarios causes particular consequences.

CounterfeitThe main objective of this study is to clarify the consequences of sourcing from unauthorized distributors on supply chain performance and its financial performance of the OEM. The study is composed of a qualitative phase and a quantitative phase. During each phase, a proper set of supply chain metrics and financial measures are employed to understand the effects of sourcing from unauthorized distributors and counterfeits parts. In both phases, a SCOR model is used as a reference for supply chain metrics as well as to understand the supply chain processes.

Based on the study results, there is obviously a trade-off involved in sourcing from an unauthorized channel. It may help the OEM in some respects; however, it may pose a risk to the OEM performance at the same time. The particular circumstance of each business is a key factor to determine the effects. Among the factors studied, raw material quality, sourcing volume, and accusation price are the most important ones respectively. The most influential factor is raw material quality and it mostly outweighs the effect of the unauthorized distributors’ lower prices. It implies that lower prices should not be the sole incentive to source from unauthorized channel. Concerning all factors is a must. In the case that the OEM decides to source from an unauthorized channel, proper risk mitigation methods should be employed to reduce the risk of receiving low quality articles.


During the research period, the interaction between supply chain performance and financial performance in the presence of counterfeit electronic parts was researched. The study was divided into two phases, qualitative study and quantitative study. Through the qualitative study, after a comprehensive literature review, the potential interaction between supply chain non-cost performance measures and financial ratios was examined. During the quantitative phase, a combination of simulation, Design of Experiments (DOE), and regression analysis was used to assess the behavior of parameters.

Results and Conclusions

The quantitative phase of this study was based on a generic supply chain and a two level design of experiment. While this is a proper setting to screen out insignificant factors and to understand the general behavior of parameters, it is not an adequate model to quantify the interactions. A more elaborated model and some case studies are required in this regard. Formulating the interactions between parameters, valuating the quality threshold, and a wider clarification of financial impacts of sourcing decisions could be the next step of this study.

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NewSustainability Science

United Nations University"Ensuring Water Security for the Sustainability of the Hani Rice Terraces, China Against Climate and Land Use Changes"
Archana Jayaraman (with Dr. Srikantha Herath & Johanna Diwa)
United Nations University
Masters in Sustainability Science • February 2017

Project details

Hani Rice TerracesBuilding upon a 2013 report on developing ecosystem-based adaptation strategies for enhancing the resilience of rice terrace farming systems against climate change for the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research, Archana Jayaraman took the project one step further.

The hydrological system of the Hani Rice Terraces in Yunnan, China was modelled using the Similar Hydrologic Element Response (SHER) model in ExtendSim. Two models were built, for the upstream and downstream catchments and were calibrated using global datasets. Further analysis was done on the behaviour of the model under future climate scenarios using the RCP predicted data.


jayaraman modelThis study aims to assess the hydrological response of the selected study sites in the Hani Rice Terrace to climate change. Subsequently, it sets a process for analyzing a complex, interconnected hydrological system with varying topography and containing different landscape elements across different reaches for enhancing livelihoods of terrace communities. In the current analysis, instances of scarcity and periods of concentrated availability have been noticed, both in the upstream and the downstream reaches, under historical and future rainfall scenarios and demand changes. Reconciling water availability with equitable access has been identified as the most important issue that needs policy formulation and institutional arrangements. In this research, water scarcity index as a tool is used to identify and understand threats to water security and is found to be an appropriate way of looking at overall changes in demand and supply. The analysis is conducted with available spatial data derived from satellite and global data sets complimented with field surveys, and estimates are expected to be representative. It is seen that the water scarcity index can also be used to identify periods in which action is required and show if interventions can really help solve a given problem in a simple manner.

Results and Conclusions

This research analyzed different components of the hydrological system in the area and clarified the contribution of the surface and groundwater flow in the area. The need to assess both, while also looking at the total water cycle, for estimating the availability of water in the system and the future changes, was identified as a key parameter for ensuring water security. Water scarcity was estimated in terms of the balance between availability and use, and it was found that there were periods of water scarcity in the area, with differences in the upstream and downstream reaches of the system. It has been shown that solving development challenges requires a multi-stakeholder strategy as the system is deeply intertwined with the social setup in the area, and the use of tools such as the water scarcity index can be done to aid effective problem identification and decision making regarding the timing and effects of interventions on the ground.


The authors extend their thanks to the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (ARCP2011-13NMY-Herath) for supporting the field research. The support of the people of Hani rice terraces who helped in the field work is gratefully acknowledged.

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Transportation -- Construction Projects

University of Florida"Conceptual Methodology for Managing Transportation Construction Projects Through the use of Buffering Strategies"
Eric Forcael ( with Vicente González, PhD; Ralph Ellis, PhD; & Francisco Orozco, PhD)
University of Florida
PhD in Civil & Coastal Engineering • August 2011

Project presented at

forcael lacceiNinth LACCEI Latin American and Caribbean Conference (LACCEI'2011), Engineering for a Smart Planet, Innovation, Information Technology and Computational Tools for Sustainable Development, August 3-5, 2011, Medellín, Colombia.


Uncertainty is an inherent part of production systems. In construction processes, production variability emerges as one of the most typical representation of uncertainty. Negative variability impacts in construction demands effective solutions to mitigate its effects on the accomplishment of projects. The incorporation of buffers constitutes powerful tools to resolve uncertainty problems in construction processes and to optimize the construction operations sequencing. Despite the fact that buffering strategies have been implemented in several types of construction projects, there is limited evidence of specific applications of these strategies to highway projects. forcael modelBased on discrete event simulation modeling, a conceptual methodology of buffering strategies applied to transportation projects is presented.

After an exhaustive literature review, the most relevant buffers in transportation construction projects are presented, followed by conceptually modeling a typical construction process within highway projects. Through this methodology, the authors present an iterative process which allows decision-makers to properly select buffers to be considered when modeling construction processes in transportation construction projects.


Specifically, this research searched to study and analyze different types of buffers in order to figure out which are more relevant in road projects. Then, the buffers, which were chosen in the first part of this research, were modeled with ExtendSim and, subsequently, validated through a case of study.

Results and Conclusions

This paper was focused on proposing and testing a simple graphical approach based on simulation techniques and buffering strategies applied to transportation construction projects and, more generally, proposing a conceptual methodology to build simulation-based models that help deal with the negative impact of variability on this type of projects.

This conceptual methodology allows the researcher to develop a simulation-based model for any type of transportation construction project, with the final and most appreciated objective of utilizing the outputs of the model as a tool for decision-makers. This methodology permits to select the appropriate activities to be included in the model, to select the buffers, to compare the outputs given by the model with actual data, to determine whether the buffers are statistically significant (ANOVA, MANOVA) and, if not, to loop back to previous steps to feedback the model with the relevant buffers found, finishing the process with the utilization of the outputs information in order to make better decisions.

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Transportation -- Traffic Signal Timing

Arab Academy"Optimization of Traffic Signal Timings Using Genetic Algorithm, Simulation, and FPGA Control"
Ahmed Aziz Ezzat (with Julia El Zoghby, Mohamed El Ahmar, Nermine Hany, Azmy Mehelba, & Ezz Abou Emira)
Arab Academy for Science, Technology, and Maritime Transport
Bachelor of Science for the Department of Industrial & Management Engineering • July 2013


Traffic congestion is a major problem in vastly populated cities. This project focuses on the traffic crisis seen in Alexandria, which occurs due to the absence of a reliable control strategy that regulates the traffic signal lights. As a result, a substantial growth of the vehicles' queue lengths and delays emerges. The main aim of this project is to minimize the traffic congestion for a traffic control system, considering the traffic signal timings rendered to a number of control points in specified intersections. In order to satisfy this goal, a set of objectives to be carried out through the project are established.

Ahmed Aziz Ezzat modelThe main objectives include developing an analytical model representing the traffic system and proposing a solution approach using the Genetic Algorithm technique. Furthermore, developing a simulation model for the problem in order to replicate and analyse the performance of the real system, as well as suggesting better scenarios to improve the overall system efficiency. Furthermore, a simulation model is developed to represent a smart traffic control system, and evaluate its correspondent performance compared to the current situation. In addition, employing optimization using simulation methodology to reach the best possible traffic light timings, and last but not least, studying the possibility of applying FPGA's for the control of traffic systems.

The report focuses on generating different scenarios and various solutions through experimenting with the developed models in order to optimize the traffic signal timings. Comparisons are held between different approaches and methodologies to achieve the best possible performance and cut off the traffic congestion problem from its root causes.

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Uncertainty in Software Engineering

University of Calgary"Studying the Impact of Uncertainty in Operational Release Planning - An Integrated Method and its Initial Evaluation"
Ahmed Al-Emran (with Puneet Kapur, Dietmar Pfahl, & Guenther Ruhe)
University of Calgary
PhD in Software Engineering • July 2009

Project presented at

ICSP 2010International Conference on Software Process (ICSP) 2010
July 2010 • Paderborn, Germany

Journal article published in

Information & Science Technology

Information and Software Technology
Volume 52, Issue 4, April 2010
pages 446-461


Uncertainty is an unavoidable issue in software engineering and an important area of investigation. This paper studies the impact of uncertainty on total duration (i.e., make-span) for implementing all features in operational release planning.

The uncertainty factors under investigation are:

the number of new features arriving during release construction

the estimated effort needed to implement features

the availability of developers

the productivity of developers.


al emran modelAn integrated method is presented combining Monte-Carlo simulation (to model uncertainty in the operational release planning (ORP) process) with process simulation (to model the ORP process steps and their dependencies as well as an associated optimization heuristic representing an organization-specific staffing policy for make-span minimization). The method allows for evaluating the impact of uncertainty on make-span. The impact of uncertainty factors both in isolation and in combination are studied in three different pessimism levels through comparison with a baseline plan. Initial evaluation of the method is done by an explorative case study at Chartwell Technology Inc. to demonstrate its applicability and its usefulness.

Results and Conclusions

The impact of uncertainty on release make-span increases – both in terms of magnitude and variance – with an increase of pessimism level as well as with an increase of the number of uncertainty factors. Among the four uncertainty factors, we found that the strongest impact stems from the number of new features arriving during release construction. We have also demonstrated that for any combination of uncertainty factors their combined (i.e., simultaneous) impact is bigger than the addition of their individual impacts.

The added value of the presented method is that managers are able to study the impact of uncertainty on existing (i.e., baseline) operational release plans pro-actively.

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Other Publications by this Researcher

Journal Articles

[J1] Ahmed Al-Emran, Dietmar Pfahl, Günther Ruhe: A Method for Re-Planning of Software Releases using Discrete-Event Simulation. Accepted in Software Process Improvement and Practice under special issue “ICSP 2007”.

[J2] Ahmed Al-Emran, Dietmar Pfahl: Performing Operational Release Planning, Re-planning and Risk Analysis using a System Dynamics Simulation Model. Accepted in Software Process Improvement and Practice under special issue “PROFES 2007”.

[J3] Dietmar Pfahl, Ahmed Al-Emran, Günther Ruhe: A System Dynamics Model for Analyzing the Stability of Software Release Plans. Published in Software Process Improvement and Practice 12 (2007) 5, 475-490.

[J4] Jingzhou Li, Günther Ruhe, Ahmed Al-Emran, Michael M. Richter: A Flexible Method for Software Effort Estimation by Analogy. Empirical Software Engineering 12 (2007) 1, 65-106.


Conference Papers

[C1] Anas Jadallah, Ahmed Al-Emran, Mahmoud Moussavi, Günther Ruhe: The How? When? and What? for the Process of Re-Planning for Product Releases. Accepted in International Conference on Software Process (ICSP) 2009.

[C2] Ahmed Al-Emran, Puneet Kapur, Dietmar Pfahl, Günther Ruhe: Simulating Worst Case Scenarios and Analyzing their Combined Effect in Operational Release Planning. Accepted in International Conference on Software Process (ICSP) 2008.

[C3] Ahmed Al-Emran, Keyvan Khosrovian, Dietmar Pfahl, Günther Ruhe: Simulation-Based Uncertainty Analysis for Planning Parameters in Operational Product Management. Published in Proceedings of the 10th Int. Conference on Integrated Design and Process Technology (IDPT) 2007. Antalya, Turkey, June 3-8, 2007, 191-201.

[C4] Ahmed Al-Emran, Dietmar Pfahl: Operational Planning, Re-Planning and Risk Analysis for Software Releases. Published in International Product Focused Software Development and Process Improvement (PROFES) Conference 2007 - Proceedings. Berlin-Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, 2007, 315–329 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science 4589).

[C5] Ahmed Al-Emran, Dietmar Pfahl, Günther Ruhe: DynaReP: A Discrete Event Simulation Model for Re-Planning of Software Releases. Published in International Conference on Software Process (ICSP) 2007 - Proceedings. Berlin-Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, 2007, 246-258 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science 4470).

[C6] Dietmar Pfahl, Ahmed Al-Emran, Günther Ruhe: Simulation-Based Stability Analysis for Software Release Plans. Published in International Software Process Workshop and International Workshop on Software Process Simulation and Modeling, SPW/ProSim 2006 - Proceedings. Berlin-Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, 2006, 262-273 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science 3966).

Value Stream Mapping -- Complex Production Environments

TUM"A Simulation-Enhanced Value Stream Mapping Approach for Optimisation of Complex Production Environments"
David Schmidtke (with U. Heiser & O. Hinrichsen)
Technical University of Munich
PhD in Chemical Engineering • June 2014

Project presented in

JournalInternational Journal of Production Research

May 16, 2014


Value stream mapping (VSM) is a widely adopted method for transformation of production environments into a lean operational state. The straightforwardness as well as the completeness, with which processes are analysed and optimised, are key to the success of the method originating from the automotive industry. However, these attributes of the ‘paper and pencil’ approach result in limitations when applying VSM in complex production environments. This research paper targets to overcome these limitations, specifically in production environments involving significant demand variability, complex routing and cost factors which potentially increase with lean implementation. For this purpose, an enhanced VSM method is developed, which utilises discrete event simulation (DES). The method features a feasibility and trade-off analysis which is incorporated into the VSM procedure. A case study covering a process of exhaust gas purification catalyst production is then conducted to test the newly developed method. The VSM project yields a shop floor lead time reduction from 11.4 to 1.4 d. The additional DES feasibility and trade-off analysis determines customer demand fulfilment and quantifies the monetary benefit of the future state. In that way, potential iterative implementation which is inherently oppositional to the lean philosophy is avoided.

ExtendSim use

After successful utilization of discrete event simulation as a decision-making tool in a VSM project for optimization of a discrete part chemical model process, the procedure was transferred to chemical bulk products. Initially, ExtendSim discrete rate simulation was adapted to the requirements of a two-component chemical process, in which separation takes place. For this purpose, a parallel process for the second component (diluted salt) is added to the model of the overall volume. Both components are linked by through mass balance.

The overall model is divided into two areas:

I. Flow area
Flow between tanks and vessels takes place at constant salt concentration. Therefore, the salt rate is linked to the regulated volume rate as well as the concentration inside the upstream tank. Simple flow area connections can be analytically solved with linear differential equations. Concurrence with the analytical solution validates the modeling approach.

II. Separation area
Wherever separation takes place, two streams with changed salt concentrations evolve from one feed stream. Distribution of both, volume and concentration of the product stream depend on feed parameters (volume flow and concentration) as well as process parameters (pressure, temperature, etc.). For separation operations, diverge blocks are utilized with distribution ratios calculated from empirical multiple non-linear regression equations. Separation areas can be validated against real-life separators (reverse osmosis units). The accuracy depends on the exactness of the regression equations.

Results of using simulation for VSM

As the static and linear method of VSM has several disadvantages when complex production processes are covered, an integrated VSM/discrete event simulation (DES) procedure has been elaborated. The extended VSM method comprises DES feasibility and trade off analysis prior to implementation of the proposed optimization. When applied thoroughly, the procedure can help to avoid costly iterative implementation by answering the following questions beforehand:

Are we able to fulfill the customer demand with the proposed VSM future state?

Is the proposed future state beneficial when all conflicting cost factors are considered?

Furthermore, feasibility and trade off analysis can be a valuable tool for convincing the management of process changes elaborated in a VSM project.

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Value Stream Mapping

shararah arab"Component Based Modeling and Simulation of Value Stream Mapping for Lean Production Systems"
Mohamed A. Shararah (in conjunction with Khaled S. El-Kilany & Aziz E. El-Sayed
Arab Academy for Science and Technology
Masters • January 2010

Project presented at

IIEIIE Lean & Six Sigma Conference
Lean & Six Sigma Conference 2011

In addition to the paper's presentation, Mr. Shararah's modeling of value stream mapping concept was recognized in the conference's keynote speach by Tim Copes, the Vice President of Manufacturing and Quality for Boeing commercial airplanes due to its unique application.


FAIM 2010

FAIM Conference 2010



Shararah modelValue Stream Mapping is an important tool in the implementation of lean manufacturing. It identifies the waste in the system, paving the way for a successful lean implementation. VSM is a paper and pencil tool that captures the state of the system at the state it was drawn. Arab Academy modelSimulation can be combined with value stream mapping to give it power and flexibility in order to dynamically capture the state of the system. Component-based modeling divides a simulation model into a number of smaller simulation models each encapsulated in a component resulting in a set of simulation building blocks. These blocks can be used for the purpose of developing value stream maps as they are designed to be generic, reusable, and appear exactly like the traditional VSM icons. This paper introduces the Value Stream Map Simulator using ExtendSim (VSMSx) as a powerful tool designed to facilitate the implementation of lean manufacturing by simulating the value stream map. Compared to traditional value stream mapping, this tool outputs more quantitative information about the system under study and various scenarios allowing for better decision making, thus paving the way for successful lean implementation.

Results and Conclusions

This work presented the combining of value stream mapping and simulation, and how such a combination gave much power and strength to both tools. Simulation added another dimension to VSM which is time, and VSM showed the importance of simulation in modeling production systems.

Using simulation building blocks to model VSM icons gives great flexibility and power to the simulation model. Simulation itself gives another dimension to the VSM which is time, thus making it easy to know the state of the system under different circumstances allowing for better decision making.

Experimenting with a VSMSx model will give information about the system that can be very useful. As when doing a more standard simulation analysis it gives a very good overview of the interaction of the products with each other in the system over time. It also gives some additional information and possibilities. The results can give information on how differences in lead times appear and how lead times relate to value adding times. Experiments can easily be done varying setup times and even some cycle times to see what effects that has on inventory. Also buffer sizes and batch sizes can be altered to see how it affects the system. Another example is the visualization of which machines will give you the best and fastest effect when initiating Single minute exchange of dies (SMED) work. The possibilities are many with VSMSx paving the way towards better lean understanding by decision takers and faster lean implementation.

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